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Inflation in February 2018

Headline Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), decreased to 3.2 per cent in February 2018 from 5.4 per cent in January 2018, on year-on-year basis. The high base prevailed in February 2017 as well as the monthly decline in Food prices in February 2018 supported by the favourable supply conditions attributed to this sharp decline in year-on-year inflation in February 2018.

The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis decreased from 7.6 per cent in January 2018 to 7.2 per cent in February 2018.

When the monthly change is considered, the NCPI declined from 125.8 index points in January 2018 to 123.7 index points in February 2018 largely due to the decline in prices of the items in the Food category, particularly that of vegetables, green chillies, red onions, rice and big onions. Meanwhile, price increases were observed in all the sub-categories in the Non-food category except for Communication sub-category.

SL Purchasing Managers’ Index - February 2018

The Manufacturing Sector PMI recorded 55.6 index points in February from 51.7 index points in January 2018. This indicates that the Manufacturing activities expanded at a higher rate in February compared to January 2018 after the seasonal slowdown observed during the previous month. This was mainly driven by the expansion in the New Orders sub-index. The Production sub-index also increased with the increase in new orders. Nevertheless, this increase was relatively low compared to that of new orders due to lesser number of working days in February. Further, Stock of Purchases sub-index also expanded during the month while Employment sub-index expanded marginally. Meanwhile, the Suppliers’ Delivery Time sub-index lengthened at a higher rate compared to previous month. Overall, all the sub-indices of PMI recorded values above the neutral 50.0 threshold signalling an overall expansion in manufacturing activities during the month. Moreover, The Expectation for activities indicates an improvement for the next three months.

IMF Staff Concludes the 2018 Article IV Mission with Sri Lanka and Discusses Progress of Economic Reform Program

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.‍

Clarification on the Cancellation of Licence and Certificate of Registration Issued to Central Investments and Finance PLC

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka wishes to further clarify the press release issued on 05.03.2018 with regard to the cancellation of Licence issued to Central Investments and Finance PLC (CIFL) under the Finance Business Act No. 42 of 2011 and Certificate of Registration issued under the Finance Leasing Act No. 56 of 2000. As communicated to the public on 05.12.2017 through our press release all insured deposits of CIFL will be paid up to a maximum of Rs. 600,000/- per depositor as per the regulations of the Sri Lanka Deposit Insurance and Liquidity Support Scheme.

Central Investments and Finance PLC - Cancellation of Licence issued under the Finance Business Act No. 42 of 2011 and Certificate of Registration issued under the Finance Leasing Act No. 56 of 2000

Central Investments and Finance PLC (CIFL), a Licensed Finance Company (LFC) Licensed under the Finance Business Act No. 42 of 2011 (FBA) has been facing severe financial problems over the last four years due to mismanagement and various fraudulent activities taken place in the company. Depositors of the company have failed to withdraw their money over the last four years. All efforts made to revive the company through different strategies have been failed. The continuity of current status will further detrimental to the interest of depositors and other stake holders of the company.

Therefore, Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, has decided to cancel the Licence issued to CIFL under the Finance Business Act No. 42 of 2011 (FBA) with effect from 05.03.2018. Accordingly, CIFL is not permitted to engage in Finance Business under the FBA with effect from same date.

The Central Bank Responds to Misleading News Reports on Future Interest Rate Movements

The attention of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka has been drawn to a few recent media reports claiming that the Central Bank is expecting a rise in domestic interest rates in the period ahead. The reasons cited in the said reports for such expectation are a decline in reserves, higher than expected imports and increased interest rates on government securities.

The Central Bank emphasises that, based on its current projections, an increase in market interest rate is not expected in the near term. The recent movements in headline inflation, core inflation, inflation expectations, broad money growth, credit expansion, expansion in economic activity as well as the international reserve position do not justify the view that a rational market would also expect an increase in interest rates.

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