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External Sector Performance - September 2017

The external sector performance was driven by a double digit growth in exports (yearon-year) in September 2017, surpassing the US dollars 1 billion mark of monthly exports for the third consecutive month. However, the trade deficit expanded with higher imports of fuel and rice during the month. Earnings from tourism declined moderately during the month with a slightly lower number of tourist arrivals from key destinations compared to September 2016. The moderation in workers’ remittances continued in September, resulting in a noteworthy decline in workers’ remittances in the first nine months of 2017. However, reflecting continuous investor confidence, the financial account of the Balance of Payments (BOP) continued to strengthen during the month with higher foreign inflows to the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and the government securities market.

Inflation in October 2017

Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) (2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), increased to 8.8 per cent in October 2017 from 8.6 per cent in September 2017, on year-on-year basis.

The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis increased from 6.8 per cent in September 2017 to 7.1 per cent in October 2017.

When the monthly change is considered, the NCPI increased from 123.3 index points in September 2017 to 124.8 index points in October 2017. This monthly increase was mainly due to the increase in prices of the items in the Food category which was led by adverse supply side developments. Price increase of coconuts, vegetables and rice were prominent. Nevertheless, prices of fresh fish and eggs declined. Meanwhile, the impact of LP Gas price revisions introduced in September 2017 was also observable. Furthermore, Restaurants and Hotels subcategory too recorded a price increase during the month.

Sri Lanka Purchasing Managers’ Index Survey - October 2017

The Manufacturing Sector PMI recorded 54.8 in October which is a decrease of 4.2 index points compared to September 2017. This indicates that the Manufacturing activities expanded at a slower pace in October compared to September 2017. This was mainly driven by the New Orders and Employment sub-indices which moderated from the levels of increase observed in the previous month. The Production and Stock of Purchases sub-indices also expanded at slower rates in October. Meanwhile, the Suppliers’ Delivery Time sub-index lengthened at a higher rate which was led by lengthening of delivery time of overseas suppliers due to the high demand for their supplies from other countries. Overall, all the sub-indices of PMI recorded values above the neutral 50.0 threshold signalling an overall expansion in October 2017, but at a slower pace than the previous month. Moreover, the Expectation for activities remain positive for the next three months.

Land Price Index - First Half of 2017

In order to monitor the developments in the real estate sector, Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has been compiling and analyzing several indicators. The bi-annual Land Price Index (LPI) which is compiled covering the Colombo District since 1998 is one of the indicators of this nature. In the compilation process of LPI, CBSL uses the land price data collected by the Valuation Department of Sri Lanka covering around 50 centers of five Divisional Secretariat (DS) divisions1 in the Colombo District. In view of the diverse nature of the land use and to maintain homogeneity, three indices for residential, commercial and industrial lands are computed separately. The overall LPI is computed by taking the average of these three sub-indices.

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Monetary Policy Review - No. 7 of 2017

Considering developments in the domestic and international macroeconomic environment, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 06 November 2017, was of the view that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate. Accordingly, the policy interest rates of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka will remain unchanged at their current levels.

The decision of the Monetary Board is consistent with the objective of maintaining inflation at midsingle digit levels over the medium term and thereby facilitating a sustainable growth trajectory. The rationale underpinning the monetary policy stance is set out below.

Clarification on Employment Numbers Referred to in the Central Bank Annual Reports

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has observed media reports highlighting the employment numbers referred to in the CBSL Annual Reports of 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Subsequent to the Census of Population and Housing (CPH) 2012 conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) covering the entire island, the Registrar General’s Department introduced changes to the Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) and published a revised series. Accordingly, in July 2016, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates were re-weighted by the DCS and a new series was published for data pertaining to the years from 2011 onwards. This is the general practice in all other countries and it maintains the consistency of LFS estimates with the revised MYPE.

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