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Monetary Policy Review - December 2016

According to the provisional estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the Sri Lankan economy is estimated to have grown by 4.1 per cent during the third quarter of 2016 compared to the growth of 5.6 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Services activities grew by 4.7 per cent, while Industry activities grew notably by 6.8 per cent during the third quarter of 2016. However, Agriculture related activities continued to report a contraction, for the second consecutive quarter, by 1.9 per cent, impacted by the adverse weather conditions that prevailed during the third quarter of 2016. Favourable developments in leading economic indicators as well as the lower base in the fourth quarter of 2015 are likely to steer economic growth upwards in the final quarter of 2016 in spite of the effect of adverse weather conditions and global economic uncertainties.

Inflation in November 2016

Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) (2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics, increased marginally to 4.2 per cent in December 2016 from 4.1 per cent in November 2016, on year-on-year basis. Both

Food and Non-food categories contributed towards the year-on-year inflation in December 2016. The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis remained unchanged from last month at 4.0 per cent in December 2016.

SL Purchasing Managers’ Index Survey - November 2016

The Manufacturing Sector PMI was 58.4 in November with an increase of 1.9 index points compared to October 2016 indicating that the manufacturing activities expanded in November compared to October. This was mainly due to the higher pace in which Employment and Production sub-indices expanded during the month. The New Orders sub-index also increased during the month. The Stock of Purchases sub-index decelerated in November indicating a usage of stocks for the upcoming season while Suppliers’ Delivery Time lengthened. Overall data points to an expansion where all the sub-indices are above the neutral 50.0 threshold. The expectations for activities indicated an improvement for the next three months.

9th International Research Conference of Central Bank of Sri Lanka

The 9th International Research Conference of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka was held on 2 December 2016 at the John Exter International Conference Hall of the Central Bank. The conference, organised by the Economic Research Department of the Central Bank, aims to stimulate research on contemporary themes while providing a forum for researchers of central banks, monetary authorities, universities and other research institutions to present recent theoretical and empirical work on issues relating to central banking and macroeconomic management. Since its inception in 2008, the International Research Conference has attracted scholars from across the globe and featured keynote addresses by eminent central bankers, academics and policy makers.

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