The underlying fundamentals do not warrant the current pressure on the Sri Lanka rupee. Gross external reserves are presently at a healthy USD 9.1 bn and the real effective exchange rate indices indicate that the currency is competitive.
The Manufacturing Sector PMI contracted recording an index value of 45.5 in April with a decline of 20.1 index points from March. The new year holidays in April dragged back the manufacturing activities following the peak level of activities observed in the previous month, and was in line with the pattern observed in previous years. The contraction of PMI in April was largely attributable to the contraction in the Production and New Orders sub-indices. Stock of Purchases and Employment sub-indices also decreased during the month. Moreover, lengthening of the Suppliers’ Delivery Time sub-index slowed down during the month which partially indicates that suppliers are less busy. Respondents highlighted that increase in unauthorised absentees following new year holidays disturbed the manufacturing activities. Moreover, respondents, especially in the Textiles and Apparel sector, highlighted difficulties in finding both skilled and unskilled workers. However, the Expectation for activities indicates an improvement for the next three months.
A notable growth in tourist arrivals and continuous net foreign inflows to the stock exchange amidst a significant widening of the trade deficit characterised the external sector performance in February 2018. A surge in gold imports was the primary driver behind the fastest increase in overall merchandise imports in nearly 3-1/2-years, resulting in a further widening of the trade deficit in February 2018. Continuing the growth momentum observed in January 2018, earnings from tourism increased significantly in February 2018. However, workers’ remittances declined in February 2018 following a growth in January. The financial account of the balance of payments (BOP) recorded a net inflow of foreign investments to the stock exchange, helping to counterbalance a net outflow in the government securities market in February 2018.
The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 10 May 2018, decided to maintain policy interest rates at their current levels. Accordingly, the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) remain at 7.25 per cent and 8.50 per cent, respectively. The Board’s decision aims at stabilising inflation in mid-single digit levels in the medium term, thereby contributing to a favourable growth outlook for the Sri Lankan economy.
In recent days, serious concerns have been expressed regarding the performance of the Sri Lankan economy.
In this context, it is instructive to gauge the level of external support for the Sri Lankan economy from international capital markets. This would be an independent barometer of the health of the Sri Lankan economy as international capital markets are hard-nosed in their assessments.
In terms of Section 35 of the Monetary Law Act No. 58 of 1949, the sixty eighth Annual Report of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka was presented to Hon. Mangala Samaraweera, the Minister of Finance and Mass Media, by Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.
A summary of the performance of the Sri Lankan economy in 2017 as reflected in the Annual Report is given below: