Sri Lanka’s external sector recorded a moderate performance in July 2018. The trade deficit continued to widen in July 2018 (year-on-year) with higher import expenditure despite export earnings surpassing US dollars 1 billion during the month. Earnings from tourism recorded a modest growth while workers’ remittances declined marginally, on a year-on-year basis, during the month. The financial account recorded moderate inflows during July, while requirements of debt servicing and other outflows resulted in a decline in gross official reserves to US dollars 8.4 billion as at end July 2018. The foreign exchange market continued to be under pressure with outflows of foreign investments from the government securities market and increased foreign exchange demand for imports thus necessitating intervention by the Central Bank to curtail intraday excess volatility in the exchange rate.

Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) (2013=100), compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics, increased to 2.2 per cent in March 2016 from 1.7 per cent in February 2016, on year-on-year basis. The main contributor towards the increase in year-on-year inflation was the Non-food category. Prices in Miscellaneous Goods and Services (Car insurance); Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco; Transport; and Clothing and Footwear sub categories were the main contributors towards the year-on-year increase.

The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis decreased to 2.4 per cent in March 2016 from 2.6 per cent recorded in February 2016.

Headline inflation, as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI, 2006/2007=100), declined to 2.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in March 2016 from 2.7 per cent in February 2016, mainly due to the decline in food inflation. On an annual average basis, CCPI based headline inflation edged up to 1.1 per cent in March 2016 from 0.9 per cent in the previous month. Year-on-year headline inflation, based on the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100), was 2.2 per cent in March 2016 compared to 1.7 per cent in the previous month, and was 2.4 per cent on an annual average basis. Meanwhile, the CCPI based core inflation, which reflects underlying demand pressures in the economy, declined to 4.5 per cent in March 2016 from 5.7 per cent in the previous month, on a year-on-year basis.

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Following discussions held between IMF staff and the Sri Lankan authorities during the 2016 Spring Meetings in Washington, staff-level agreement was reached on a three-year program to be supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

Mr. Todd Schneider, IMF mission chief for Sri Lanka, made the following statement: